§ Guides

Prediction markets, explained

Short, plain-English guides to reading prediction markets: what the prices mean, where they come from, and what happens when a market ends. No jargon assumed, no hype offered.

• 01What is a prediction market?What prediction markets are, how prices turn into probabilities, and what a real contract pays out — with a worked example and honest limitations.
• 02How to read prediction-market oddsTurn prediction-market prices into probabilities: cents to percent, spreads, depth, payout math, and the traps in multi-outcome markets.
• 03How prediction markets resolveWhat happens when a prediction market ends: written resolution rules, the UMA optimistic oracle, disputes, and how winning shares settle to $1.

Prefer to learn by looking? The live markets feed shows every concept in these guides on real, open markets — or read how Knoww works for the tour of the product itself.