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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Up was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $29.10K in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Up (100%)
- Volume
- $29.10K
- Resolution date
- October 4, 2026
- Last updated
- October 5, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Resolution source: https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.