Markets›Geopolitics
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Geopolitics prediction markets

International conflicts, diplomacy, and geopolitical events Compare live Polymarket odds, volume, and outcome prices as trader expectations change.

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

December 31>99%
September 30>99%
October 31>99%
$2.74Mvol$413.89Kliq6mkts
NATO x Russia military clash by...?

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3133%
October 3121%
$7.56Mvol$264.20Kliq6mkts
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes16%
No85%
$67.80Mvol$920.50Kliq1mkt
Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

December 31>99%
September 25>99%
September 2399%
$946.71Kvol$123.53Kliq3mkts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3164%
October 3141%
September 3013%
$30.24Mvol$355.03Kliq20mkts
NR
Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro54%
Delcy Rodríguez45%
No Head of State<1%
$97.35Mvol$2.33Mliq57mkts
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

September 20100%
September 2596%
September 3090%
$1.88Mvol$562.92Kliq6mkts
Putin out as President of Russia by...?

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202712%
December 31, 20264%
September 30, 2026<1%
$25.28Mvol$1.08Mliq5mkts
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Dopropillia96%
Druzkhivka38%
Kramatorsk20%
$1.31Mvol$72.02Kliq8mkts
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

March 31, 202770%
December 31, 202647%
October 31, 202632%
$11.88Mvol$215.25Kliq12mkts
NR
Next leader out of power before 2027?

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Netanyahu - Israel PM38%
None before 202735%
Lecornu - France PM11%
$532.05Kvol$724.84Kliq22mkts
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

July 18100%
July 20100%
July 22100%
$31.16Mvol$346.60Kliq24mkts
Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202726%
December 3114%
November 308%
$26.00Mvol$635.90Kliq14mkts
Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Yes4%
No96%
$13.81Mvol$491.49Kliq1mkt
NR
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot53%
Benjamin Netanyahu28%
Naftali Bennett8%
$38.56Mvol$2.82Mliq28mkts
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Yes4%
No96%
$42.60Mvol$577.40Kliq1mkt
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?

October 3177%
September 3029%
September 222%
$935.40Kvol$93.23Kliq4mkts
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%
October 3111%
September 301%
$14.98Mvol$419.55Kliq12mkts
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202771%
November 30, 202769%
September 30, 202766%
$7.87Mvol$880.56Kliq18mkts
NR
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms13%
Save the Children10%
Yulia Navalnaya8%
$24.44Mvol$1.50Mliq71mkts

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Knoww›Geopolitics
2026