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Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
The Field
3§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see October 31 as the leading outcome, at a 93% probability across 4 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 17 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $999.75K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- October 31 (93%)
- Volume
- $999.75K
- Liquidity
- $42.29K
- Resolution date
- November 1, 2026
- Outcomes
- 4
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
On September 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy announced that the East-West oil pipeline has been shut down. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Saudi Arabia announces that the East-West oil pipeline is operational or no longer shut down between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must express that the pipeline is presently operating; operation at partial or reduced capacity qualifies. Announcements that attribute such a claim to third parties, state that the pipeline will or may operate in the future, describe work underway to restore operation, or frame resumption as expected, planned, or conditional, will not qualify. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent contradictory statements, or alternative information from other sources. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.