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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 84% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $73.33M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (84%)
- Volume
- $73.33M
- Liquidity
- $703.09K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 11, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.