Knoww
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 86% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $68.08M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (86%)
- Volume
- $68.08M
- Liquidity
- $862.44K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.