Knoww
Next French Presidential Election
The Field
5 of 41§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Marine Le Pen as the leading outcome, at a 38% probability across 128 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $136.92M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Marine Le Pen (38%)
- Volume
- $136.92M
- Liquidity
- $16.24M
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2028
- Outcomes
- 128
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.