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Politics prediction markets

Political events, elections, and government decisions Compare live Polymarket odds, volume, and outcome prices as trader expectations change.

HotNR
Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva25%
$184.50Mvol$1.22Mliq32mkts
NR
Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets October 9 - October 16, 2026?

340-35986%
360-37914%
380-399<1%
$3.91Mvol$679.87Kliq26mkts
NR
Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%
Édouard Philippe19%
David Lisnard12%
$152.09Mvol$17.70Mliq128mkts
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

September 20100%
September 25100%
September 30100%
$13.99Mvol$1.30Mliq20mkts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3159%
December 3135%
November 3021%
$40.81Mvol$584.29Kliq23mkts
NR
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%
R Senate, D House28%
Republicans Sweep9%
$23.99Mvol$9.15Mliq5mkts
NR
Which party will win the House in 2026?

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%
Republican Party10%
$17.89Mvol$5.39Mliq9mkts
NR
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Other50%
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%41%
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%28%
$1.61Mvol$875.40Kliq9mkts
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes16%
No85%
$74.35Mvol$482.02Kliq1mkt
NR
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot48%
Benjamin Netanyahu31%
Naftali Bennett13%
$46.83Mvol$3.33Mliq28mkts
NR
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%
J.D. Vance48%
Marco Rubio14%
$711.89Mvol$51.67Mliq128mkts
NR
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $80; D Senate61%
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate31%
Oil < $80; D Senate4%
$432.93Kvol$1.52Mliq4mkts
NR
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

No Hormuz Agreement94%
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%
$655.89Kvol$1.21Mliq3mkts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Yes<1%
No>99%
$2.70Mvol$300.94Kliq1mkt
NR
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

360-37915%
340-35914%
380-39914%
$702.41Kvol$286.30Kliq26mkts
NR
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%
Gavin Newsom15%
Jon Ossoff14%
$1.29Bvol$75.88Mliq128mkts
NR
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party65%
Republican Party38%
$6.75Mvol$4.42Mliq9mkts
Iran leadership change by...?

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%
December 3112%
November 306%
$27.46Mvol$418.82Kliq14mkts
NR
Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
Jon Ossoff10%
$716.92Mvol$60.04Mliq128mkts
NR
Texas Senate Election Winner

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%
Ken Paxton (R)38%
$3.83Mvol$753.86Kliq13mkts

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2026