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United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see 340–354 as the leading outcome, at a 97% probability across 7 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 68 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $2.45M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by September 20, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- 340–354 (97%)
- Volume
- $2.45M
- Liquidity
- $75.53K
- Resolution date
- September 20, 2026
- Outcomes
- 7
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.