Knoww
Brazil Presidential Election
The Field
5 of 19§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Flávio Bolsonaro as the leading outcome, at a 61% probability across 32 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $153.21M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by October 4, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Flávio Bolsonaro (61%)
- Volume
- $153.21M
- Liquidity
- $19.54M
- Resolution date
- October 4, 2026
- Outcomes
- 32
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.