Markets›Economy
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Economy prediction markets

Economic indicators, central banks, and recession odds Compare live Polymarket odds, volume, and outcome prices as trader expectations change.

HotNR
Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?

25 bps increase55%
No change45%
50+ bps increase<1%
$9.45Mvol$1.99Mliq5mkts
NR
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase70%
No change27%
50+ bps increase2%
$1.22Mvol$515.09Kliq5mkts
NR
Largest Company end of December 2026?

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA76%
Apple15%
Alphabet7%
$7.48Mvol$1.31Mliq28mkts
US recession by end of 2026?

US recession by end of 2026?

Yes10%
No91%
$2.03Mvol$33.99Kliq1mkt
NR
Largest Company end of September?

Largest Company end of September?

NVIDIA99%
Company F50%
Company G50%
$2.12Mvol$998.36Kliq25mkts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Yes20%
No81%
$12.01Mvol$518.82Kliq1mkt
NR
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)96%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%
$53.16Mvol$3.71Mliq13mkts
NR
Core PCE YoY - August 2026

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

3.4%34%
3.2%28%
3.3%20%
$42.73Kvol$12.90Kliq7mkts
NR
September Inflation US - Annual

September Inflation US - Annual

3.6%45%
3.7%26%
3.5%21%
$54.27Kvol$42.39Kliq12mkts
NR
Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?

No change56%
25 bps increase32%
25 bps decrease6%
$109.87Kvol$482.26Kliq5mkts
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes87%
No14%
$96.36Kvol$214.69Kliq1mkt
NR
Core CPI YoY - September 2026

Core CPI YoY - September 2026

2.4%44%
2.5%33%
2.3%17%
$23.79Kvol$9.43Kliq10mkts
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.0%100%
Below 4.7%53%
Below 4.6%47%
$299.10Kvol$137.59Kliq16mkts
NR
Bank of Korea decision in October?

Bank of Korea decision in October?

No Change59%
25 bps hike41%
50+ bps cut<1%
$24.59Kvol$14.15Kliq5mkts
NR
Bank of England decision in November?

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase60%
No change41%
50+ bps increase<1%
$111.98Kvol$33.39Kliq5mkts
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.40%77%
5.45%67%
5.50%52%
$47.24Kvol$10.57Kliq9mkts
NR
Swiss National Bank decision in September?

Swiss National Bank decision in September?

No Change>99%
25 bps increase<1%
50+ bps increase<1%
$28.36Kvol$62.58Kliq5mkts
NR
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

25 bps increase55%
No change42%
50+ bps increase<1%
$61.68Kvol$6.90Kliq5mkts
NR
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%43%
4.50-4.99%31%
5.50-5.99%20%
$123.33Kvol$17.64Kliq10mkts
NR
September Unemployment Rate

September Unemployment Rate

4.1%41%
4.2%37%
4.0%18%
$15.85Kvol$21.07Kliq9mkts

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Knoww›Economy
2026