Knoww
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
The Field
5 of 15§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Below 4.7% as the leading outcome, at a 53% probability across 16 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $299.14K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Below 4.7% (53%)
- Volume
- $299.14K
- Liquidity
- $133.81K
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 16
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.