Knoww
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
The Field
5 of 9§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see 5.40% as the leading outcome, at a 77% probability across 9 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 23 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $47.24K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- 5.40% (77%)
- Volume
- $47.24K
- Liquidity
- $10.99K
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 9
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.