Knoww
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 87% probability to Yes on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $96.36K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by December 9, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Yes (87%)
- Volume
- $96.36K
- Liquidity
- $195.88K
- Resolution date
- December 9, 2026
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.