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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
The Field
5 of 6§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2027 as the leading outcome, at a 64% probability across 7 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 24 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $2.80M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2027 (64%)
- Volume
- $2.80M
- Liquidity
- $199.58K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2028
- Outcomes
- 7
- Last updated
- October 8, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.