Knoww
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 4% probability across 6 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $69.30M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (4%)
- Volume
- $69.30M
- Liquidity
- $1.02M
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 6
- Last updated
- September 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.