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Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see October 31, 2026 as the leading outcome, at a 2% probability across 2 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $99.07K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- October 31, 2026 (2%)
- Volume
- $99.07K
- Liquidity
- $4.22K
- Resolution date
- November 1, 2026
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- October 25, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.