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Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 98% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $18.72M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (98%)
- Volume
- $18.72M
- Liquidity
- $120.39K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.