Knoww
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
The Field
4§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see 14–16 as the leading outcome, at a 55% probability across 7 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $1.48M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- 14–16 (55%)
- Volume
- $1.48M
- Liquidity
- $2.38K
- Resolution date
- January 8, 2027
- Outcomes
- 7
- Last updated
- October 8, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.