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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
The Field
5 of 8§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see <5 as the leading outcome, at a 44% probability across 8 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $525.40K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- <5 (44%)
- Volume
- $525.40K
- Liquidity
- $16.75K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 8
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.