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Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2026 as the leading outcome, at a 6% probability across 3 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $2.15M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2026 (6%)
- Volume
- $2.15M
- Liquidity
- $19.99K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 3
- Last updated
- October 18, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.