Knoww
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Yes was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $51.78M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Yes (100%)
- Volume
- $51.78M
- Resolution date
- June 30, 2025
- Last updated
- May 16, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.