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Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 9% probability across 7 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $458.24K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by December 31, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (9%)
- Volume
- $458.24K
- Liquidity
- $236
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 7
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.