Knoww
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
The Field
5 of 10§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see ↑4.5k as the leading outcome, at a >99% probability across 17 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $8.11M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- ↑4.5k (>99%)
- Volume
- $8.11M
- Liquidity
- $30.13K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 17
- Last updated
- October 16, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Resolution source: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.