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Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 8% probability across 3 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $1.95M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (8%)
- Volume
- $1.95M
- Liquidity
- $50.55K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 3
- Last updated
- October 25, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.