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NATO article 5 before 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 95% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $300.89K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (95%)
- Volume
- $300.89K
- Liquidity
- $40.97K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 23, 2026
Rules and resolution
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.