Knoww
Next Claude Haiku (4.6+) released by...?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. October 31 was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $40.12K in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- October 31 (100%)
- Volume
- $40.12K
- Resolution date
- November 1, 2026
- Outcomes
- 5
- Last updated
- October 8, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.