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Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see 3 as the leading outcome, at a 76% probability across 5 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 9 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $42.91K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 1, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- 3 (76%)
- Volume
- $42.91K
- Liquidity
- $12.24K
- Resolution date
- November 1, 2026
- Outcomes
- 5
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.