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Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 8% probability across 5 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $538.32K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (8%)
- Volume
- $538.32K
- Liquidity
- $11.23K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 5
- Last updated
- October 25, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.