Knoww
US forces enter Iran by..?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. December 31 was the final outcome after finishing with a closing probability of 100%. The market traded approximately $367.05M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- December 31 (100%)
- Volume
- $367.05M
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 9
- Last updated
- August 13, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.