Knoww
What will Trump say in October?
The Field
4§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Illness as the leading outcome, at a 48% probability across 22 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $13.56K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by October 31, 2026.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Illness (48%)
- Volume
- $13.56K
- Liquidity
- $182
- Resolution date
- October 31, 2026
- Outcomes
- 22
- Last updated
- October 25, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between October 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 'mention' will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.