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Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
The Field
5 of 16§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Venezuela as the leading outcome, at a 16% probability across 16 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 2 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $892.35K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Venezuela (16%)
- Volume
- $892.35K
- Liquidity
- $554.80K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 16
- Last updated
- October 11, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.