Knoww
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
The Field
2§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Democratic as the leading outcome, at a 65% probability across 15 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $2.51M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by November 8, 2028.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Democratic (65%)
- Volume
- $2.51M
- Liquidity
- $670.82K
- Resolution date
- November 8, 2028
- Outcomes
- 15
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.