Knoww
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
The Field
5 of 7§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Ursula von der Leyen as the leading outcome, at a 44% probability across 15 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 9 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $567.38K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Ursula von der Leyen (44%)
- Volume
- $567.38K
- Liquidity
- $80.22K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 15
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.