Knoww
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 60% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 3 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $476.28K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (60%)
- Volume
- $476.28K
- Liquidity
- $13.39K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution source: https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.