Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?

Rules and resolution

This is a market on if Donald Trump will be inaugurated for his second term as President of the United States of America, on Inauguration Day—January 20th, 2021. At the time of market creation, AP, CNN, WSJ, Fox, and more have called the election for Joe Biden as the winner, and formally declared him the president-elect, however Trump vows to contest the result legally. Inauguration Day is the day when the newly elected President is sworn in, and takes place at the beginning of every new term, regardless of if it is a new president, or the incumbent president is entering their second term. It has taken place on January 20th every time since 1937, unless it’s been a Sunday, which it is not in 2021. In the highly unlikely event the Inauguration Day date is changed to any other day before February 1st, 2021, it will be treated as the official Inauguration Day and resolution date for this market, and the same conditions will apply. This market will not resolve, under any circumstances, until the resolution date—Inauguration Day. If Joe Biden, or anyone else other than Donald Trump, is inaugurated that day as President of the USA, the market will resolve to “No”. If Trump claims he is still president, but is not officially inaugurated on Inauguration Day, the market will resolve to “No”. If for any reason, Trump is not inaugurated for the next term before February 1st, 2021, the market will resolve to “No”. If he is officially inaugurated for his second term on Inauguration Day the market will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be https://www.usa.gov/presidents#item-37462 and https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/, both official government sources.

Resolution source: https://www.usa.gov/presidents#item-37462 and https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/

Data source and freshness

Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading has ended, so the figures above reflect the final trading state while settlement remains pending. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.