Knoww
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Yes was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $16.82M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Yes (100%)
- Volume
- $16.82M
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2024
- Last updated
- December 22, 2024
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Syria between September 12, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Golan Heights count as Israeli territory. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Syria, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.