Knoww
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by ___?
§ Market context
About this market
Trading on this market has ended, but settlement is still pending. December 31, 2025 finished as the leading outcome at a closing probability of <1%. The market traded approximately $44.18M in total volume.
- Status
- Trading closed
- Final leading outcome
- December 31, 2025 (<1%)
- Volume
- $44.18M
- Resolution date
- December 31, 2025
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- January 2, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading has ended, so the figures above reflect the final trading state while settlement remains pending. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.