Knoww
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 97% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $5.30M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (97%)
- Volume
- $5.30M
- Liquidity
- $72.23K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 22, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.