Knoww
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
The Field
3§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2027 as the leading outcome, at a 38% probability across 4 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 5 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $891.75K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2028.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2027 (38%)
- Volume
- $891.75K
- Liquidity
- $88.45K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2028
- Outcomes
- 4
- Last updated
- October 25, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.