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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
The Field
5 of 46§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Jean-Luc Mélenchon as the leading outcome, at a 94% probability across 46 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $555.85K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by July 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (94%)
- Volume
- $555.85K
- Liquidity
- $589.80K
- Resolution date
- July 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 46
- Last updated
- October 15, 2026
Rules and resolution
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.