Markets/World/El Salvador Legislative Election Winner
El Salvador Legislative Election Winner

El Salvador Legislative Election Winner

$5.63KVolFeb 2838 mkts4 months leftNeg Risk

The Field

5 of 11

§ Market context

About this market

Traders currently see Nuevas Ideas (NI) as the leading outcome, at a 95% probability across 38 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $5.63K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by March 1, 2027.

Status
Live trading
Leading outcome
Nuevas Ideas (NI) (95%)
Volume
$5.63K
Liquidity
$163.27K
Resolution date
March 1, 2027
Outcomes
38
Last updated
October 23, 2026

Rules and resolution

Legislative elections to elect the 60 members of the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador are scheduled to take place on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be counted only where they are attributed to the specified party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. Notwithstanding the above, if candidates from two or more parties run on the same list, each seat won by that list will be counted toward the party to which the elected candidate belongs. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal of El Salvador (https://www.tse.gob.sv/).

Resolution source: https://www.tse.gob.sv/

Data source and freshness

Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.

Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.