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Fed rate cut by...?
The Field
5 of 7§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see July 2027 Meeting as the leading outcome, at a 50% probability across 13 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved down 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $3.81M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by August 8, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- July 2027 Meeting (50%)
- Volume
- $3.81M
- Liquidity
- $173.10K
- Resolution date
- August 8, 2027
- Outcomes
- 13
- Last updated
- October 24, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.