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Highest grossing movie in 2026?
The Field
5 of 14§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see Spider-Man: Brand New Day as the leading outcome, at a 96% probability across 28 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 1 percentage point. The market has traded approximately $17.66M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 8, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day (96%)
- Volume
- $17.66M
- Liquidity
- $2.38M
- Resolution date
- January 8, 2027
- Outcomes
- 28
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Resolution source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.