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Human moon landing in 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 99% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $1.98M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (99%)
- Volume
- $1.98M
- Liquidity
- $21.60K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 8, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.