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Insurrection Act invoked by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31 as the leading outcome, at a 20% probability across 7 listed outcomes. Over the past 24 hours, the leading outcome's probability has moved up 5 percentage points. The market has traded approximately $1.14M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31 (20%)
- Volume
- $1.14M
- Liquidity
- $971
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 7
- Last updated
- October 14, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.