Knoww
Iran Nuke before 2027?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently assign a 97% probability to No on this market. This is the live price of the leading outcome, and it moves as traders buy and sell. The market has traded approximately $1.41M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- No (97%)
- Volume
- $1.41M
- Liquidity
- $116.76K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Last updated
- October 17, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.