Knoww
Israel military action against Iraq before November?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. Yes was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $27.78M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- Yes (100%)
- Volume
- $27.78M
- Resolution date
- October 31, 2024
- Last updated
- October 31, 2024
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 13, 2024, and October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.