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Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
§ Market context
About this market
This market is resolved. No was the final outcome after closing at a 100% probability. The market traded approximately $16.91M in total volume.
- Status
- Resolved
- Final outcome
- No (100%)
- Volume
- $16.91M
- Resolution date
- January 31, 2026
- Last updated
- March 19, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Trading and settlement have ended, so the figures above reflect the resolved market state. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
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Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.