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Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
The Field
3§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see March 31 as the leading outcome, at a 22% probability across 8 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $1.40M in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by April 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- March 31 (22%)
- Volume
- $1.40M
- Liquidity
- $36.31K
- Resolution date
- April 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 8
- Last updated
- October 18, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.