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Jimmy Lai released by...?
§ Market context
About this market
Traders currently see December 31, 2026 as the leading outcome, at a 5% probability across 2 listed outcomes. The market has traded approximately $391.23K in volume as of the latest update. It is scheduled to resolve by January 1, 2027.
- Status
- Live trading
- Leading outcome
- December 31, 2026 (5%)
- Volume
- $391.23K
- Liquidity
- $16.44K
- Resolution date
- January 1, 2027
- Outcomes
- 2
- Last updated
- October 18, 2026
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count. Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Data source and freshness
Odds, volume, and liquidity come from live Polymarket order books. Prices update continuously while trading is open; the figures above reflect the most recent refresh. Probabilities are market prices — what traders collectively pay for a $1 payout if the outcome occurs — not editorial forecasts.
Related markets
Prediction-market prices can move quickly and past probabilities do not guarantee outcomes. Nothing on this page is financial advice.